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# Evaluation of prediction accuracy

## General Provisions

Score for the accuracy of the prediction is a quantitative indicator of the correspondence of the forecast to the actual result.

Score for the accuracy of the forecast is used to distribute the winnings from the prize pool.

Forecast accuracy is assessed on a scale from 0 to 100 points.

100 points are awarded for an absolutely accurate forecast, implying the 100% coincidence the prediction and the actual result.

If several independent events are included in the coupon for bets, then the evaluation of the coupon forecast accuracy as a whole is calculated as the arithmetic average of the scores of the forecasts accuracy for each event.

Points for the accuracy of the forecast (except for an absolutely accurate forecast) are subjective, but they are the same for all players.

In the prevailing majority of cases, when comparing two incorrect forecasts, it is obvious which forecast is more accurate. And this means that the evaluation of the accuracy of predictions is fair.

The rules for assessing the accuracy of the forecast can be viewed directly from the coupon using the button "Coupon Rules".

If you don't want to bother learning the rules of evaluation, we suggest You try a free bets to understand these rules in the game, without risking anything.

The administration of Totup will be grateful for suggestions to improve the system for forecasts assessment.

## Our approaches to assessing accuracy

Aspect of the event for the forecast.

The event in itself is not the subject of forecasting. The subject of the forecast are the Aspects of the event, which characterize the event from a certain side.

The aspect of a sporting event can be expressed by a number (numbers), a participant's name, a certain allegation.

The aspect of an event will be called simple, when it is characterized by only one value in some form: number, name, allegation. The aspect of an event is called complex if it consists of several simple aspects.

Examples of events: a Football match, a biathlon race.

Examples of simple Aspects: the total number of goals in a match, the outcome of a football match (1X2), the winner of a biathlon race.

Examples of complex Aspects: match score, names of the three winners of the race.

Criteria for evaluating the accuracy of the forecast

The accuracy of a forecast can be evaluation in different ways, depending on which criteria to use for the assessment.

Criteria for evaluating of forecast are also Aspects of the event.

The criteria for evaluating the accuracy of the forecast are chosen in such a way that it is possible to assess the discrepancy between the forecast and the actual result.

And the aspects of the event for the forecast and for the assessment do not necessarily coincide.

Example: a Coupon on the winner of a race. Aspect of the event (race) for the forecast is the name of the participant of the race, and the aspect of the event for evaluation is the place of the participant following the results of the race. In this case, the place of the athlete in the race is not the subject of the forecast, but is an evaluation criterion.

Calculation of points for forecast accuracy

To calculate points (score) of the accuracy of the forecast, it is required to determine the Discrepancy between the value of the aspect of the event according to the forecast and the actual value of the aspect of the event.

If there is no Discrepancy between the forecast and the actual result, then the estimate for the forecast is equal to 100 points. If the Discrepancy between the forecast and the actual result has a maximum value, then the score for this forecast is equal to 0 points.

If the Discrepancy is expressed by a number, then the estimate for the accuracy of the forecast is calculated as a linear or exponential function.

If the discrepancy is not expressed by a number, then the score for the accuracy of the forecast is determined by means the special table of assessments.

In the case when the event aspect for the forecast is complex and / or for estimating the accuracy of the forecast, several criteria are used, then in calculating the accuracy of the forecast as a whole, the scores for each criterion are taken into account with weighting factors.

If several independent events are included in the coupon for bets, then the evaluation of the coupon forecast accuracy as a whole is calculated as the arithmetic average of the scores of the forecasts accuracy for each event.

## Table of assessments

The system of evaluation of forecast accuracy in many cases can be presented as a Table of assessment.

In cases where complex aspects of the event are used for forecasting or for estimation, formulas or sets of Tables of assessment are used to calculate scores for the accuracy of the forecast:

Table No 1

The table cell at the intersection of the line with the predicted value of the aspect of the event and the column with the actual value of the aspect of the event contains the score for the accuracy of the forecast.

The cells, at the intersection of the identical values of the aspect of the event for the forecast and the aspect of the event for evaluation, contain 100 points for the exact forecast.

The remaining cells of the table contain points for inaccurate forecast Bij < 100.

Formulas and / or tables to assess the accuracy of the forecast for a particular coupon look at the coupon by clicking on the button "Coupon Rules»